OECD Predicts Britain 'To Return To Recession' UK At Double Risk

Britain will return to recession next year, and will need to print more money, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has said.
In its semi-annual report on the outlook in its 34 member states, the international economic research group (OECD) said weak demand and fiscal consolidation has halted the recovery in the UK.
The OECD expects the downturn to be "modest", with 0.1% decline in output for the final quarter of this year and 0.6% contraction in the first quarter of 2012. 
Six months, or two consecutive quarters, of negative economic growth indicate a recession.
The organisation also said the Bank of England should expand its quantitative easing programme to £400bn - effectively pumping a further £125bn into the economy by buying government bonds - to support growth.
It warned that unemployment could reach 9% by 2013, but that inflation would fall below the 2% target.
The OECD forecast for Britain goes a step further than the growth downgrade from the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC).
In its latest quarterly economic report, the business lobby group has slashed its prediction for UK output growth for the rest of this year, as well as 2012 and 2013.
It expects growth to be "very weak" until mid-2012 due to the impact from the eurozone debt crisis, and has revised its prediction of gross domestic product (GDP) rise next year to 0.8%, less than half the 2.1% it had expected previously.
Although it expects unemployment to increase by 150,000 over the next 12 months, the group has warned against "unjustified gloom about the UK's economic prospects", adding that conditions will gradually improve over time.
"Despite our prediction of slow growth, there is no need for doom and gloom," BCC director general John Longworth said.
"The UK economy has the potential to recover and thrive. Our economic prospects will improve, but not overnight.
"A strong recovery relies on creating the right conditions for growth. Companies need the best possible environment to generate wealth and create jobs.
"Business is clear that the Government must stick to its deficit reduction plans.
"Yet, there is room for the Chancellor to change spending priorities, and focus more of our existing budgets on improving infrastructure, helping businesses to invest, and support for exporters."
The economic reports come on the eve of George Osborne's Autumn Statement, in which he is expected to reveal raft of measures including a £30bn infrastructure plan.
The BCC's chief economist David Kern told Sky News: "What we are saying is that in spite of this economic situation we are in, the deficit cutting programme was the right thing to do.
"The Chancellor and the Government have gained a lot of credibility in the financial markets and I think tomorrow the Chancellor will be able to cash in on that credibility."
The BCC also expects the Bank of England to keep the base interest rate at 0.5% until the final quarter of 2012, but pump a further £50bn into the economy through quantitative easing.
It added consumer spending would decline by 1.2% in 2011, but begin to grow from 2012.
The services sector, which includes businesses ranging from hairdressers to accountants, has already seen its fastest fall in activity for two-and-a-half years as consumers rein in spending, according to the Confederation for British Industry.