Osama bin Laden’s legacy remains a threat

A decade after the 9/11 attacks, United States officials are saying that victory over Al Qaeda is imminent. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta declared in July that the US is "within reach" of "strategically defeating" the jihadi group. But there are reasons to be sceptical of this idea. The weight
of evidence suggests the danger may in fact grow in the coming decade.

An initial reason for scepticism is that we've heard these kinds of claims before. In September 2003, for example, President George Bush boasted that two-thirds of Al Qaeda's known leadership had been captured or killed and the group had been deprived of its Afghan sanctuary. In April 2006, the US intelligence community's consensus held that Al Qaeda had been defeated, as reflected in the National Intelligence Estimate's assessment that "the global jihadist movement is decentralised, lacks a coherent strategy, and is becoming more diffuse." The following month, Bush echoed this, saying, "Absolutely, we're winning. Al Qaeda is on the run." Bush and the US intelligence community overstated Al Qaeda's weakness. By July 2007, official assessments of the group had shifted radically. The new National Intelligence Estimate released that month concluded that Al Qaeda "has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability."

The fact the intelligence community has been wrong on this matter before doesn't mean it will always be wrong, but there's little reason to think its understanding of Al Qaeda has drastically improved. Many views held recently by analysts haven't borne out, including the consensus opinion that Osama bin Laden could be found in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (he was in Abbottabad), and the majority view that bin Laden was a figurehead within Al Qaeda (he didn't).

But this scepticism about US intelligence is buttressed by objectively measurable indicators. The 9/11 Commission Report, analysing the factors that allow terrorist groups to execute catastrophic attacks, concluded that they require physical sanctuaries giving them "time, space, and ability to perform competent planning and staff work," as well as "opportunities and space to recruit, train, and select operatives."

Al Qaeda enjoyed one such sanctuary on September 11, 2001, in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Today Al Qaeda affiliates enjoy four: in Somalia, Yemen, Pakistan, and northern Mali. Nobody has a cognisable strategy to dislodge militants from these areas, a fact that in itself suggests it's far too early to envision Al Qaeda's death.

But beyond the threat of a large-scale attack, Al Qaeda's overarching strategy is working fairly well. The group is devoted to undermining its enemies' economy; certainly the collapse of the US's financial sector in September 2008 made it seem mortal. In turn, that produced a strategic adaptation by jihadis, toward what they call the "strategy of a thousand cuts."

This strategy emphasises smaller, more frequent attacks, many of which are designed to drive up security costs. Al Qaeda placed three bombs on passenger planes in the past twenty-two months: Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab's underpants bomb in December 2009, and two bombs hidden in ink cartridges that were placed on FedEx and United Parcel Service planes in October 2010. Abdulmutallab's detonator failed, and the ink cartridge bombs were found before they were set to explode, but Al Qaeda doesn't necessarily view those attacks as failures. Terrorist plots are designed to drive up security costs even the world enters an age of austerity. Budgets will be slashed, including counter-terrorism budgets. Unless the countries that Al Qaeda is targeting find a way to do more with fewer resources, the chance of stopping any given attack will diminish. We may not see another 9/11 in the next decade, but it's likely we'll see more attacks succeeding in Europe, India, and the US that look more like the atrocities perpetrated in Madrid, London, and Mumbai. In short, there's little support for saying Al Qaeda's threat is no more. Making policy based on faulty factual assumptions is unhelpful at best, and at worst can help a "defeated" foe rise from the ashes.

The author is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and recently published a book, Bin Laden's Legacy

Flight 93 'heroes'
America paid tribute to the "forgotten heroes" of 9/11 on Saturday with the dedication of a national memorial to the 40 passengers and crew of United Airlines Flight 93. A long white stone wall bearing the names of those who struggled with Al-Qaeda terrorists on the fourth airliner to be

hijacked on September 11, 2001 was unveiled on the rural Pennsylvania field where the Boeing 757 crashed.

Then-president George W. Bush, his predecessor Bill Clinton and current Vice President Joe Biden joined families of the victims and hundreds of others -- many in patriotic T-shirts or holding US flags -- under a slate gray sky.

"One of the lessons of 9/11 is that evil is real -- and so is courage," Bush told the gathering, recalling "the first counter-offensive in the war on terror (and) one of the most courageous acts in American history."

"The temptation of isolation is deadly wrong," added Bush, clearly directing his remarks to those who favor less US engagement.

It was up to the United States, he said, to "lead the cause of freedom... a world of dignity, liberty, and hope would be better and safer of all."

Bells struck by National Parks Service rangers in stetson hats tolled as the names of the dead were read aloud, and Canadian songstress Sarah McLachlan, alone at the piano, performed her mournful "I Will Remember You."

Nightfall later Saturday will see the solemn lighting of nearly 3,000 luminarias in memory of all those who died at the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and Shanksville.

On Sunday, President Barack Obama is to join a two-hour commemorative service at the spot where Flight 93 went down -- lifting the profile of a sometimes overlooked episode of the catastrophic 9/11 attacks.

The Flight 93 National Memorial currently includes an elongated walkway that sweeps past a circular field marked by a wreath-bedecked 17-ton boulder -- the exact point where the Boeing 757 slammed at full speed into the ground.

The adjoining wall bearing the names of the dead retraces the direction in which Flight 93 came down. Planted by the entry to the walkway are three young elm trees, representing the three 9/11 sites.

Future plans call for a memorial wall by 2014, a grove of 40 trees and, in time, a 93-foot (28-meter) "tower of voices" comprising 40 wind chimes -- although 10 million dollars still needs be raised before the project is done.

"It looks great now, but we still have 10 million dollars more to raise," said Ed Rendell, governor of Pennsylvania from 2003 to 2011, the period when the idea of a lasting memorial took hold.

"We built the Statue of Liberty and that was important, but there's nothing more important that this memorial."

Several days of heavy rain that triggered floods in much of Pennsylvania forced organizers to alter the staging of this weekend's events, and the sun struggled to break through the clouds when the dedication began.

Notable upon the stage were the flags of Germany, Japan and New Zealand -- in remembrance of wine merchant Christian Adams, 37, student Toshiya Kuge, 20, and lawyer Alan Anthony Beaven, 48, the non-native-born Americans on the flight.

A US Navy brass quintet in crisp white uniforms played a prelude. FBI agents raised the national flag. Award-winning bagpiper Bruce Liberati played "Amazing Grace" despite a flagging sound system.

Ethel Stevanus, who lives near Shanksville, came Saturday in a T-shirt emblazoned "Let's Roll" -- the battle cry that software executive Todd Beamer reputedly shouted to his fellow passengers and crew against the hijackers.

"Our hearts go out to those who gave their lives to stop the plane from hitting the Capitol or wherever it was going," she told AFP.

Notwithstanding a Hollywood movie, "United 93", the story of Flight 93 has largely been overshadowed by the destruction of the World Trade Center and the direct hit on the Pentagon.

In-flight recordings pulled from the rubble revealed how the passengers and crew, aware of the World Trade Center attack from mid-air cellphone calls to loved ones, fought the four hijackers for control of the Being 757.

The plane crashed at 10:03 am, slamming into the ground at 563 miles (906 kilometers) an hour, just 20 minutes' flying time from its presumed target, the Capitol building. Everyone on board died instantly.

In the aftermath of 9/11, local volunteers took on the task of greeting visitors and maintaining a makeshift memorial along the chain-link fence that overlooks what some call "America's first battlefield against terrorism."

The 2,200-acre (890-hectare) site has drawn up to 6,000 people a week in the summer months, with an uptick seen this year, said Marlin Miller, 78, a retired Methodist pastor and volunteer guide.

But the memorial has its detractors: in the local Daily American newspaper, opponents of its design took out a large advertisement Friday to allege that its curved format resembles the Islamic crescent, facing Mecc
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