Russia Holds Key To Ending Syria Bloodshed

President Bashar al Assad has so far resisted diplomatic attempts to solve the crisis in Syria

The international community accepts it has been unable to stop the violence in Syria.

Now its efforts are focussing on somehow - and it’s a big somehow - persuading the Russians to make a diplomatic shift.
Russia holds the key to what happens next. We’ve realised that since the beginning.
But any change will come if Russia decides that the current status quo is not in its interests.
For a long time people were hesitant to call what’s happening in Syria a civil war. There can be no doubt about it now.
After events in Houla in which more than a hundred people were killed and now what activists say is another massacre in Hama province President Assad is making a big old fool out of Kofi Annan and his peace plan.
Everyone calls Mr Annan’s six-point plan to stop the violence the only game in town. It's a plan on a life-support machine.

Kofi Annan's six point peace plan for Syria seems to be faltering, with reports of a fresh massacre in Hama province

But the next stage would involve almost bypassing the issue of the violence and cutting the problem off at the roots - persuading Assad to step down.
Logically that sounds much more difficult to achieve than the goals of the original plan.
But it comes back to this point about the Russians.
For them it’s about self-interest. They have no interest in defining what is or isn’t the will of the Syrian people.
To do that would invite the opportunity for others to do the same in their backyard. And that would open up a whole other can of worms.
And that will be the key to persuading the Russians to become part of a "united international community" (as America’s Secretary of State puts it) over Syria.
Kofi Annan wants to focus on establishing a workable political transition process, ie how to get President Assad to step down.
Even if the Russians joined that call he still may not. But the option which brought about change in Yemen is one which could be floated.
That means getting the President to step down with a pre-condition of immunity from prosecution.
He will have watched how the end came for Colonel Gaddafi in Libya. Gaddafi was publicly lynched.
Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak has wound up in jail for the rest of his life. A negotiated departure presents a much better option, surely?

A change of policy from Russian President Vladimir Putin could make the difference in Syria

The passage of time has played well for him in the region. For Egypt and Libya, losing their dictators hasn’t been a democratic picnic.
Egypt stares in the face rule by the Muslim Brotherhood - that’s not what those who took their protests to Tahrir Square had hoped for.
And Libya has been plunged into insecurity, uncertainly and violent rivalry between the militias who filled the power void. Neither of these options appeals to the ordinary Syrian.
No wonder President Assad has always believed he can survive - not to mention being backed by the west’s other 'Public Enemy Number One', Iran.
On paper, President Assad looks like he can sit it out. But he may just decide he can’t if the Russians manage to persuade him otherwise, and offer him a plan that allows him to escape with his life and his liberty.